基于云模型的干旱扬水灌区水土环境演化响应评价

Evaluation of the Response of Water-soil Environment Evolution in Arid Pumping Irrigation Area Based on Cloud Model

针对干旱扬水灌区的水土环境演化具有多介质驱动的模糊性及多过程耦合的不确定性特征,选定具有典型性的甘肃省景电灌区为研究区,应用云模型转化的方法开展区域水土环境演化响应评价,构建了基于云模型的干旱扬水灌区水土环境演化响应评价的指标体系,采用改进AHP法确定指标权重,利用正向云发生器实现了对水土环境演化变迁的定性描述到定量表征。研究表明:灌区2004年水土环境综合最大隶属度为0.3698,对应"较高敏感(Ⅳ)",2014年综合最大隶属度为0.261 9,对应"高敏感(Ⅴ)",近10年来灌区综合水土环境朝着敏感度高的方向演化,其中灌区提水量、灌溉水量、地下水矿化度、土壤盐碱化程度、盐渍土含盐量等指标因子响应较为强烈。应用云模型开展干旱灌区水土环境的演化响应评价,可在兼顾模糊性和随机性的基础上,实现评价指标的不确定性映射,为相关区域的水土环境评价提供了一种新的思路。

Based on the uncertain characteristics of multi coupled process and the fuzzy features of multi medium driving of drought driven pumping irrigation area in the process of evolution of water-soil environment,Jingtai electric pumping irrigation area in Gansu Province is chosen. In this study,the way of cloud model transformation is used to develop regional water-soil environment evolution assessment. And based on the cloud model,the evaluation index system about arid pumping irrigation area water-soil environment evolution is established.Furthermore,the improved AHP method is used to confirm the weight of these indexes and the normal cloud generator is used to realize quantitative expression of water-soil environment. Research shows that in 2004 maximum membership degree of water-soil environment in irrigated area is 0. 3698,corresponding to 'relatively high sensitivity( Ⅳ) '; while the value in 2014 was 0. 2619,corresponding to 'high sensitivity( Ⅴ) '. In the last decade,the sensitiveness of the maximum membership degree of integrated water-soil environment in irrigation districts was becoming higher. Among those,the capacity of water delivery of irrigation area,irrigation water volume,groundwater mineralization,soil salinization extent and saline soil salinity have a strong response. Though the evolution evaluation based on the cloud model of water-soil environment in arid areas and on the basis of fuzzy and random,we can realize the uncertainty mapping of evaluation index,which can provide a new thought about regional water-soil environment assessment.