多米诺效应下化工储罐区的脆弱性分析

Vulnerability analysis on chemical storage tank area under domino effect

为有效地减少和控制事故的多米诺效应,对影响事故扩展的关键装置,即脆弱单元的辨识及其有效控制措施进行了研究。根据具体的设计方案,依次选定不同储罐作为初始事故单元,借助ALOHA软件计算各储罐之间热辐射及冲击波相互作用强度的大小,与损伤阈值进行比较,并考虑设备间的协同作用,从而确定可能发生的多米诺事故;运用Probit模型计算事故扩展概率,根据计算结果通过Bayes Server软件建立贝叶斯网络,利用先验概率来进行整体脆弱性分析,从而确定各个方案的安全性;对优选的方案通过后验概率进行单元脆弱性分析,从而确定脆弱单元;在此基础上提出相应的控制措施。通过实例计算验证了该方法的可行性,结果表明,该方法能够在多米诺效应的预防和控制方面有效发挥作用。

In order to reduce and control the domino effect of accident effectively,the identification and effective control measures of key installations influencing the accident expanding,namely the vulnerability units,were studied. Different storage tanks were selected in turn as the initial accident unit based on the specific design schemes,and the interaction intensities of thermal radiation and shock wave among different tanks were calculated by using ALOHA software and compared with the damage threshold,then the possible domino accidents were determined considering the synergistic effect among the equipments. The accident expanding probability was calculated by using the Probit model,and the Bayesian network was established by using the Bayes Server software according to the calculation results,then the prior probability was used to carry out the overall vulnerability analysis,so as to determine the safety of each scheme. The unit vulnerability analysis was carried out on the optimized scheme through the posterior probability,thus the vulnerability units were determined. On this basis,the corresponding control measures were put forward. The feasibility of this method was verified through the case calculation,and the results showed that the method can play an effective role on the prevention and control of domino effect.