技术进步是破解能源-环境约束的良方吗?——对杰文斯悖论的理论研究观察

Is Technological Advance as a Liberator to Break the Energy-Environment Constraints? —A Theoretical Survey on Jevons Paradox

许多科学家和政策制定者认为技术进步能够减少资源的消耗,但杰文斯阐明了这可能是一个错误的期望。论文从杰文斯悖论的历史渊源和相关研究成果入手,阐述了杰文斯悖论源起、发展以及在相关领域的拓展,并从直接效应与间接效应、供给与需求关系、生产过程中的预期情形与实际情形对杰文斯悖论产生的理论根源进行了分析。之后,结合国内外关于"回弹效应"的研究成果展开了理论观察。经验性证据显示替代性的回弹效应十分明显,杰文斯悖论不应被排除,而通过提高能效降低能源消费的思路是总体可行的,但不能单纯依靠技术手段来减少能源消耗和排放,经济等手段也应作为补充,以确保节能减排的效果。最后,论文指出技术进步是应付能源-环境问题的一个潜在的重要补充,但它并不像政策制定者所乐观认为的是一种普遍适用的补救措施,而如果要改进能源-环境状况,人类必须自愿改变自身的行为模式,才能实现资源、环境和社会的可持续发展。

Many scientists and policymakers believe that technological advance can reduce resource consumption, but Jevons had stated that this could be a false expectation. From the historical origins of Jevons paradox and the related research results, this paper expounds the origins, development and expansion of Jevons paradox, and analyzes the theoretical roots of the Jevons paradox arising from the direct effects and indirect effects, the relationship between supply and demand, as well as the projected situation and the real situation in the productive process. Then, combined with the domestic and foreign research results of ＂rebound effect＂, the theoretical observation is carried out. Empirical evidence demonstrates that the rebound effect of substitution is obvious, and the Jevons paradox should not be ruled out. The idea of reducing energy consumption by improving energy efficiency is generally feasible, but cannot solely rely on technical means to reduce energy consumption and emissions, the economic measures should be used as a supplement to ensure the effectiveness of energy conservation and emission reduction.Finally,the essay points out that technological advance is potentially an important complement to energyenvironment issues,but it is not a universally applicable remedy thought optimistically by the policymakers,and if the energy-environment situation is to be improved,human beings must voluntarily change their behavior patterns in order to achieve sustainable development of resources,environment and society.