深圳市流行性感冒与气象因素的关联性分析

Association between meteorology and influenza in Shenzhen

目的探讨深圳市流行性感冒与气象因素的关联性。方法收集2013-2014年深圳市流感样病例发病资料、气象资料和外环境PM2.5浓度资料,利用散点图和建立广义相加模型分析气象因素与流行性感冒的关系。结果深圳市的流感高峰主要发生在周平均最低气温在20~27℃、相对湿度在70%~85%、周降雨总量在0~150 mm、周均温差为5.5℃左右的天气条件下。广义相加模型显示,最低气温、相对湿度、周降雨总量和周均温差是流感样病例的影响因素,其RR(95%CI)值分别为0.978(0.976~0.979)、1.005(1.004~1.006)、1.016(1.012~1.020)和1.028(1.023~1.033)。结论深圳市气象因素与流行性感冒之间具有一定的关联性。

Objective To assess the association between meteorology and influenza.Methods Records of ILI,meteorological factors and PM2.5 data were collected in Shenzhen during 2013-2014.Scatter plot and generalized additive model were used to analyze the relationship between meteorological factors and influenza.Results The pinnacle of influenza in Shenzhen mainly occured when the lowest average temperature per week was 20-27℃,relative humidity was 70%-85%,total precipitation per week was 0-150 mm and mean temperature difference was about 5.5℃.Generalized additive model displayed the lowest average temperature,relative humidity,total precipitation per week and mean temperature difference were associated with the influenza-like illness.Their RR（95% CI） were 0.978（0.976-0.979）,1.005（1.004-1.006）,1.016（1.012-1.020） and 1.028（1.023-1.033）,respectively.Conclusions There may be a certain correlation between meteorology and influenza.