台湾地区政治发展中的民意支持——基于TEDS与ABS的分析

Public Opinion Support in Political Development in Taiwan——Based on the Analysis of TEDS and ABS

本文运用台湾地区TEDS与ABS数据,在台湾所谓的民主体制、权威机关两个层面探讨台湾民众政治支持的分布与影响因素。研究发现台湾民众对既有体制的坚定支持与台湾式民主的运作满意度并不是很高。民众对体制运作的满意程度直接影响对现有体制的支持,民众对权威机关的负面评价会侵蚀对现有体制的支持。2012年后"民主批评"与"民主离异"群体比例上升,台湾民众对"民主赤字"扩大的行动反应也有显现。其中,"民主批评"群体虽会对行政当局的政策产出带来优化动力,但台湾朝野政治精英如何强化权威机关的治理表现是长期且关键的问题。

Using the data of TEDS and ABS, this paper investigates the distribution and influencing factors of the Taiwan public political support in Taiwan＇s so-called ＂democratic＂ system and authoritative organizations. The findings show that the support of the existing system from Taiwan public does not, in fact, prove to be as firm as it is expected and the Taiwan-type democratic operation is not highly satisfactory either. On the other hand, the degree of the people＇s satisfaction with the operation of democracy directly affects their political support, and their negative evaluation of authorities will erode their political support, too. Right after 2012, the population proportion of ＂democratic critics＂ and ＂democratic alienators＂ keeps rising, and the reaction of Taiwan public to the expansion ＂action＂ of ＂democratic deficit＂ seems to have emerged. Although ＂democratic critics＂ groups will bring optimization motivation for executive authorities＇ policy output, how Taiwan political elite strengthen the governance performance of authorities is a long-term and key issue.