广东耕地占用对经济增长贡献的时空特点及区域差异性研究

Space-time feature and regional difference of contribution of cultivated land occupied by construction to economic growth in Guangdong

主要研究改革开放以来建设占用耕地对广东经济增长贡献的时空特点及4个经济区域的差异。借鉴经济增长理论,通过"投入-产出"模型,利用广东1978—2014年间的有关数据,分阶段、分区域定量分析建设占用耕地对广东经济增长的贡献。分阶段分析结果表明:与改革开放以来(1978—2014年)的平均数相比较,1994—2014年建设占用耕地与广东经济增长之间不具有显著相关性,资本、技术对广东经济增长的拉动作用明显增强,资本投入的贡献由0.286%上升到0.356%,技术进步的贡献由0.196%上升至0.233%,表明耕地占用对广东经济增长的贡献逐渐减弱,二者之间出现长期脱钩是必然的,广东保耕地红线和保经济增长不矛盾也不冲突。分区域分析结果表明:珠三角地区建设耕地占用对区域经济增长的贡献为0.379%,均小于东西两翼的0.677%、0.422%,北部山区建设占用耕地对区域经济增长的贡献不明显。因此,在严控耕地红线前提下,广东经济发达区域应加快产业结构升级步伐,经济欠发达区域应制定科学合理的土地利用规划,提高全省单位土地资源上的产出能力,力促广东区域经济均衡可持续发展。

This paper mainly discussed the contribution of cultivated land occupied by construction to Guangdong economy growth,like the features of different time sections and the difference among four economic regions from the reform and open policy.Referring to the theory of economic growth,by establishing inputoutput model and based on the relevant data during 1978-2014 in Guangdong,the contribution of cultivated land occupied by construction to Guangdong economic growth was quantitatively analyzed in different time sections as well as different special regions.The time-section analysis results show that compared with the average values(from 1978 to 2014),there is no longer positive relevance between the contribution of cultivated land occupied by construction and Guangdong economic growth,while the capital and technology have gradually become driving forces of economic growth in Guangdong,such as the contribution of capital input increases from 0.286% to 0.356% and the contribution of technology advance increases from 0.196% to 0.233% as well.The above indicates that the contribution of cultivated land occupied by construction to Guangdong economic growth has gradually been declined and long-term decoupling between the economic growth and cultivated land occupied by construction is inevitable,thus,there is no fundamental contradiction between maintaining economic growth and protecting the red line of cultivated land.The special regional analysis mainly shows that the contribution of cultivated land occupied by construction to the regional economic growth of the Pearl River Delta region appears to be 0.379%,which is less than that of the East and the west of 0.677%,0.422%,and that of the northern mountainous areas is not obvious.Therefore,presupposed by strictly adhering to the red line of cultivated land,the developed areas should speed up the upgrading of industrial structure,and the less developed areas should develop a scientific and rational land use planning,thus improving the output capacity of unit land resources and urging regional economic equilibrium and sustainable development in Guangdong.