足球比赛核心制胜因素和制胜公式的探讨

Key Winning Factors and Winning Formula of Football Games

以运动成绩影响因素为依据,从更为全面、宽广的角度出发,查阅文献后选取了包括技术、战术、体能和裁判员判罚等影响足球比赛结果的52项因素指标。通过观看比赛录像,统计了200场比赛、400队次的52项影响因素指标,用相关分析和多元线性回归分析对原始数据进行了统计学处理,并将欧洲杯26场比赛统计数据代入制胜公式加以验证公式的科学性和客观性,旨在找出足球比赛制胜因素中的核心因素以及这些因素与比赛结果的数量关系,为足球训练、比赛分析和科学研究提供一定的参考。结论:个人和球队的技战术能力是影响比赛结果的核心竞技能力因素;从单一因素看,15项因素指标对足球比赛结果具有显著影响,从整体上看,10项因素指标对足球比赛结果具有显著影响,而且这些影响因素指标与比赛结果之间存在一定的数量关系;实证表明,足球比赛制胜公式具有一定科学性和客观性。

Based on the influencing factors of sports performance,this study selected 52 influencing factors of football game result including the technique,strategy and physical fitness of players as well as the order of referees after reviewing literatures from a more comprehensive and broad perspective. Study analyzed these 52 factors in 200 games by correlation analysis and multiple linear regression analysis,obtained a winning formula,tested the formula＇s scientificity and objectivity by putting the data of 26 games of European Cup into it,and aimed to find out the core winning factors of football game,the quantitative relationship between these factors and the result of competition,and to provide references for football training,competition analysis and research. Conclusions： Individual and team＇s technical and tactical ability is the core competitive ability factor that affects the result of competition. From the single factor,the 15 factors have significant influence on the results of the football game; on the whole,the 10 factors have significant impacts on the results of the football game; and these factors are quantitatively related to the result of football game. The study showed that the winning formula is scientific and objective.