中国新能源汽车发展关键影响因素识别分析

Key Factors Affecting New Energy-powered Automobile Development in China

发展新能源汽车行业成为世界各国应对传统汽车尾气导致的温室效应和气候变化关键途径,由于新能源汽车行业发展受多种因素影响,本文运用模糊集理论与决策实验分析方法探究影响中国新能源汽车发展的关键因素以及这些因素之间的关系,阐述中国新能源汽车面临的机遇和挑战。结果表明,环境污染、气候变化、煤炭产量、石油价格、循环经济收益及政府政策法规是关键影响因素,美国退出《巴黎协定》可能通过影响这些关键因素进而影响中国新能源汽车的发展;中国新能源汽车发展面临的机遇大于挑战,研究结果可为政府促进新能源汽车发展提供理论借鉴。

New energy-powered automobile development is the critical path to resolve greenhouse gases and cli-matic change caused by conventional automobile exhaust. The development of new energy-powered automobiles is impacted by many factors, thus the factors and their relations were detected applying to fuzzy set theory and deci-sion experiment analysis method,and the opportunities and challenges facing new energy-powered automobiles fi-nally. Results show that environmental pollution,climatic change,coal yield,oil price,recurring economic gain and government policies and regulations are the key factors, and the fact that United States withdrew from the Paris agreement could affect new energy-powered automobile development through these factors. China faces more opportunity than challenges in development of new energy-powered automobiles. The findings could supply theoreti-cal referencefor promoting our energy saving and new energy vehicle technology and the industrial developments.