基于谱分析的经营性用地地价波动周期研究——以南京主城区为例

Study on the Fluctuation Cycle of Profit-Oriented Land Price Based on Spectral Analysis——Case Study of Main Urban Area of Nanjing

研究目的:研究地价变动周期,为政府土地市场调控提供理论依据和决策参考。研究方法:谱分析方法。研究结论:2014—2016年期间南京主城区商服和住宅用地地价波动周期相同,均为3年左右,两者变动方向趋于一致,但住宅用地地价变动幅度大于商服。政策建议:宏观调控应采取相应的反周期策略,尽可能地减少市场波动带来的危害,同时运用经济手段、行政手段和法律手段等对土地市场进行干预,促进土地价格稳定。

The purpose of the paper is to research the fluctuation circle of land price,attempting to provide a theoretical basis and decision making reference for government regulation of land market.Methods of spectral analysis were used.The results indicated that：during 2014—2016,the fluctuation cycle of commercial land price is about 3 years in main urban area of Nanjing,as the same as that of residential land price.Both had a similar fluctuation tendency,but the magnitude of the latter change is greater than the former.It was concluded that the fluctuation cycle of land price is proved to be able to indicate the trend of land price,thus,policy of estate should be adopted in readjustment of land market.It was suggested that the counter cyclical strategy should be adopted in macroscopic readjustment and control,to reduce the risk caused by market volatility as much as possible.At the same time,we must have an intervention in the land market,using economic,administrative and legal means,to stabilize the land price.