北京市工业污染排放的主要影响因素与贡献度分解分析

Decomposition Analysis of the Main Influencing Factors and Contribution Degree of Industrial Pollution Discharge in Beijing

本文通过对导致北京市工业污染排放的主要因素的分析,建立了工业二氧化硫污染排放量与工业废水排放量的恒等式,并通过进一步差分变换,分解出了GDP总量、工业产值比重和万元工业产值污染排放几个表征北京市经济规模、产业结构变化和工业技术因素对上述两种工业污染排放量的影响程度的定量分析结果。结果显示,在北京市工业二氧化硫和工业废水排放的下降中,工业产值比重下降和工业技术提升都起到同方向的促进作用,而GDP起到反方向的阻碍作用,其中技术的作用最大,尤其是在工业二氧化硫排放中的作用是工业产值下降的120倍。因此,提高工业技术是未来北京市环境治理中最主要的一个缓解和途径。

Based on the analysis of the main factors leading to the Beijing city industrial pollution emissions, establish identities to industrial pollution and sulfur dioxide emissions of industrial waste water, and further through the differential transform, the decomposition of the total GDE the proportion of industrial output and industrial output value of ten thousand yuan of pollution discharge characterization of Beijing city economic scale and industrial structure change and industrial technology factor analysis results of the above two kinds of industrial pollution emissions affects the level of quantitative. The results showed that a decline in Beijing industrial sulfur dioxide and industrial wastewater discharge, decrease the proportion of industrial output and industrial technology promotion plays a role in promoting the same direction, while GDP plays a key role in the opposite direction, including the role of technology, especially the emission of sulfur in industrial oxygen is 120 times two the decline in industrial output. Therefore, the improvement of industrial technology is the most important way to alleviate environmental pollution in Beijing.