健康预期寿命国际比较及中国健康预期寿命预测研究

Study on International Comparison of Healthy Life Expectancy and Prediction of Healthy Life Expectancy in China

健康预期寿命由预期寿命衍生而来,是人群保持完全健康状态尚能存活的期望年数,是评估人群健康水平的指标。健康预期寿命既能反映生命数量(长寿水平),又能反映生命质量(健康程度)。世界卫生组织在《1997年世界卫生报告》中呼吁在关心预期寿命的同时更要重视健康预期寿命,随后与健康预期寿命相关的国际研究、国际政策的战略规划逐步推广该指标的应用。目前发达国家十分重视健康预期寿命研究,将其纳入国家战略规划。本文系统梳理了相关国家和地区的健康预期寿命发展状况,根据发达国家健康预期寿命发展特征,采用健康预期寿命年均增加法和健康预期寿命和预期寿命差值法,对我国2020年及2030年健康预期寿命进行推测,为我国制定"健康中国"发展规划提供对策建议。2020年中国健康预期寿命为69.2岁左右(69.1~69.4),其中男性为67.2岁左右(67.1~67.4),女性为71.3岁左右(71.1~71.5);2030年中国健康预期寿命为70.9岁左右(70.6~71.2),其中男性为69.1岁左右(68.8~69.4),女性为72.7岁左右(72.4~73.1)。建议将健康预期寿命的发展纳入中国2030经济社会发展规划指标,建立中国健康预期寿命的监测指标体系。

In recent years, China fell into the practical myth in child abuse area： on the one hand, China＇ s government has made some active intervention on child abuse, and a series of relevant regulations have been greatly promulgated to optimized the children＇ s growth space; On the other hand, the incidents of school bullying, domestic violence and social abuse in rural areas still wildly happened, some cases are even thought-provoking. Therefore, it has a strong research value to evaluate the effectiveness of child abuse policies in China, the difference between various groups and the causes of child abuse. Using a sur- vey of 6050 rural girls in six provinces of central and western China, this study attempts to discuss the three above-mentioned practical confusions with empirical methods. This study finds ： （ 1 ） the risk of child abuse in Midwest China is not serious, but the proportion who received child abuse has reached a total of 30%, and corporal punishment, swear words and violent beating as the main forms; （2） the risk of child abuse of rural girls can be significantly divided by region and grade, girls in poor areas and younger girls is more likely to be violated, of course, single girls, living-alone girls, left-behind girls, poor girls and other vulnera- ble children are worse than ordinary girls ; （3） the risk of abuse of rural girls is mainly affected by children＇ s performance and family capital, and the relationship between the parent-child relationship is limited, and also, the punitive motive under the pretext of love is the deep cause of the current abuse. It is suggested that our government should continue to deepen the control of low-intensity abuses, strengthen the special protec- tion against vulnerable girls, and also, view the family capital as the main breakthrough point.