政策试点的结果差异研究——基于2000年至2012年中央推动型试点的实证分析

Explaining the Different Outcomes of Policy Experiments:An Empirical Study on the Policy Experiments Sponsored by Central Government Agencies between 2000 and 2012

政策试点是中国政策过程中的一项重要机制,其目的是推动社会经济等各个领域的政策创新和改革。政策试点的结果不尽相同,一些试点范围扩大或上升为国家性的政策法规,一些试点却止步首轮甚至不了了之。本文针对试点结果差异这一现象进行研究,试图寻找影响试点结果的关键因素。研究者从试点执行条件的角度,以大样本研究方法系统地观察和分析2000年至2012年间由中央机构发起的试点,并提取试点过程中的特征将其编码量化,用分类评定模型（Logit Model）检测各因素对试点结果的影响。研究发现试点经费来源、试点实施方案、试点发起机构的专业性三项因素对试点结果具有显著的影响。试点经费主要由地方政府承担,试点缺乏具体实施方案,试点发起机构专业职能无法满足试点需要是导致试点执行延搁的主要原因。此项研究可以为优化试点的监督和评估机制提供实证依据。

The objective of this paper is to account for the different results of policy experiments in China.Policy experiments serve as an important tool to promote reforms and innovations of various policy domains.Some pilots programs see policy diffusion in which their experiences are imitated and learned by others.While other experiments stop at the first round.What elements contribute to the disparity of experiment outcomes is the major question this study aims to respond to.A large N study,involving 186 cases of policy experiments sponsored by central government agencies,was conduct.Content analysis was applied to extract features from the processes and outcomes of policy experiments between 2000 and 2012.This research adopts logit model to assess the impact of these factors on experiment results.As analysis result shows,three factors have significant influences on the results of policy experiments.First,funding allocation influences the willingness and behaviors of local governments to conduct pilot programs.If local government was required to take primary fiscal burden,the likelihood of effective implementation and policy diffusion declines.Second,policy experiments attached with formal and unambiguous guidelines issued by central agencies have better chances to reach expected goals.Last,successfully diffused pilot programs are usually sponsored by governmental agencies with matching function.In other words,if the function and jurisdiction of sponsored agencies do not match the practices of policy experiments,pilot programs have problems to operate effectively.However,Both government agency and media which prefer to report successful policy experiments than the pilots programs that stuck at the first phase,causes sampling bias and limits the explanatory power of this study.This study concentrates on the conditions,actors,processes and different outcomes of policy experiments.And the explanatory framework helps improve understanding China’s policy process and is also able to generalize for analyzing the policy experiments with similar characters.