透视中国综合防灾减灾的主要进展及其挑战和战略对策

Perspective of major progress and challenges of comprehensive disaster prevention and mitigation in China and its strategic measures

系统总结中国自然灾害风险主要特点和综合防灾减灾工作的现状特征,全面梳理综合防灾减灾工作的发展趋势,分析综合防灾减灾面临的三大挑战,提出有针对性和可实施性的五大战略对策。一方面,未来100年中国的气候变暖趋势将进一步加剧,极端天气事件发生的频率将增大,荒漠化、海平面上升、冰川退缩趋势将进一步加重,全球气候变化所引发的各类巨灾和由此触发的各类自然灾害的突发性、并发性、群发性、异常性日益凸显。另一方面,中国能源结构以煤为主,同时是世界上进口石油资源的大国,随着中国经济的发展,未来能源消费和二氧化碳排放量还将持续增长,经济社会发展对能源安全、粮食安全、生态安全提出了更高要求。为适应气候变化背景下的各类灾害带来的不利影响,中国应全面提高监测预警水平,建立综合防灾减灾体系,全面提高应对突发灾害和巨灾的应急能力;推动建立区域综合防灾减灾范式,系统实施绿色经济战略,大力推进节能减排,转变经济发展方式。

Under the background of building smart city and safe city, the new characteristics, new changes, new problems and new challenges emerge in an endless stream of comprehensive disaster prevention and reduction. Global climate change leads to a sharp increase in global environmental risks. Both the main characteristics of the risks from the natural disasters in China and the relevant status quo and features of the comprehensive disaster prevention and mitigation are systematically summarized herein, in which the development trend of the comprehensive disaster prevention and mitigation is fully combed and the three challenges faced by the comprehensive disaster prevention and mitigation are analyzed as well, thus five major pertinent and applicable strat- egy countermeasures are put forward. On one hand, the climate warming trend is to be intensified in China in the next 100 years, i.e. the frequencyofextremeweatherevents are to be increased, the trends of desertification, sea-level rise, glacier retreat are to be further aggravated, moreover, the suddenness, group-occurring character, abnormality of all kinds of catastrophicdisasters and all kinds of natural disasters triggered by them are gradually prominent. On the other hand, following with the economic develop- ment in China, both the energy consumption and the carbon dioxide emission are to be continuously increased, while the higher requirements are put forward by the economic development in China on the energy security, food security and ecologic security. In order to deal with all kinds of the adverse impacts from all kinds of disasters, the relevant monitoring and early warning level must be enhanced and comprehensive disaster prevention and mitigation system must be established in China, so as to fully im- prove the emergency capacity to deal with sudden disaster and catastrophicdisaster for promoting the establishment of the paradigm of regional comprehensive disaster prevention and mitigation, and then systematically implement the green economic development strategy with energy-saving and emission-reduction, thus transform the economic development mode concerned.