全面实施二孩政策后中国公共服务资源需求与空间配置格局

Demand Forecast and Spatial Allocation Pattern of China′s Public Service Resources after the Universal Implementation of "Two-Child Policy"

该文以实施"全面二孩"政策后人口预测为基础,测算了2016-2030年中国及各省区公共教育、医疗卫生、社会服务与文化体育四方面的公共服务资源缺口数、配置增量及其时空分布,结果得出:1)全面实施二孩政策后,全国及各省区阶段性公共服务(学前、小学、初中教育和妇幼保健公共服务)资源需求量增长高峰期分别为2019-2021年、2022-2027年、2028-2030年、2016-2021年,贯穿一生的公共服务资源五年期累积增量高峰期为2016-2020年;2)公共服务资源的总缺口数分布与人口总量分布格局基本吻合,广东、山东、河南等8个人口基数和增长规模均较大的省份总缺口数最大,而配置压力的分布格局与公共服务人均现状水平格局有关,因而黑龙江、吉林、北京、上海等现状水平较高的省市配置压力最大,配置量年均增长率介于10.46%~13.2%之间;3)公共服务资源配置需要重点关注高强度型和阶段性高增长型两类省区,其中山东、江苏、湖北、浙江、安徽、山西、辽宁、黑龙江8省阶段性和长期性配置强度都较高,而北京、吉林、上海、内蒙古、天津、甘肃、宁夏、青海的公共服务需求呈现出阶段性猛增的现象;4)2016-2030年公共服务资源配置的5年期累积增量的省际差异有扩大趋势,说明全面实施二孩政策给未来中国公共服务均等化实现带来了新的压力。最后,该文基于研究结果,为未来15年全国公共服务资源配置与优化布局提供了政策建议。

Based on the population prediction after the implementation of the "Two-Child Policy"(TCP),the paper predicted the demand and the increase of four sorts of Public Service Resources(PSR),including public education services,health care services,social service and culture &sports services,at national and provincial level from 2016 to 2030.The results are shown as follows:1)The peak periods of periodic PSR(pre-school,primary school,junior middle school education,maternity and child care services)growth are 2019-2021,2022-2027,2028-2030,and 2016-2021,respectively,and the peak period of lifelong PSR demand growth is 2016-2020;2)The total number of PSR gap distribution is consistent with population distribution,and 8 provinces(such as Guangdong,Shandong,Henan,et al.)with the largest population base and higher growth have the larger gap.As the distribution of allocation pressure is contributed to the current level of PSR,Heilongjiang,Jilin,Beijing,Shanghai with higher present levels of public service have the largest allocation pressure,and the average annual growth rate is between10.46% and 13.2%;3)Two orientations of PSR allocation(high strength or fast growth in a certain stage)in province scale need the special attention of government.The first type includes 8 provinces,such as Shandong,Jiangsu,Hubei,Zhejiang,Anhui,Shanxi et al.,and the second type includes Jilin,Shanghai,Inner Mongolia,Tianjin,Gansu,Ningxia and Qinghai province;4)Inter-provincial difference of the five-year cumulative increment of PSR is expanding over time,which suggested that the implementation of the TCP has negative impact on the equalization of public services.According to the results,the paper provided several policy advices for China′s PSR planning in the next 15 years.