美国特朗普政府核态势审议前瞻

The Prospect of The Trump Administration's Nuclear Posture Review

核态势审议是美国核战略规划的重要环节。面对变动中的国内外环境,特朗普政府在美国第一执政理念的框架下,预计也将利用此次核态势审议对美国核政策作出调整,在核武器作用定位上将可能更强调慑止战略对手在地区冲突层面上的核武器有限使用,并在核武器运用层面围绕上述作用重点进行筹划;在核力量发展方面坚定推动核武库现代化,可能提出更加具有可用性的低威力核武器发展方案;在核军控问题上,美俄两国虽客观上存在进一步削减空间,但鉴于削减已经进入深水区,且美俄关系持续恶化,因此预计未来美俄下一步核裁军前景并不乐观。

Nuclear Posture review is an important component of the U.S.nuclear strategic planning.Facing the changed and changing international and domestic situation,the Trump administration would use this nuclear posture review process to deliver some changes to the U.S. nuclear policy,which is possible to highlight the role of nuclear weapon in deterring the limited use of nukes by adversaries in regional conflict and mapping nuclear employment plan accordingly.In regard to the aging nuclear arsenal,the Trump administration would be committed to promoting nuclear modernization and highlighting the development of more usable low yield nuclear weapons.On nuclear arms control,the next step of further reduction between the U.S.and Russia would be rather dim given the current nuclear posture of both countries as well as the undesirable bilateral relations.