未来30年我国潜在增长率变化趋势及2049年发展水平预测

Trend of Potential Growth Rate in China in the Next 30 Years and Forecast of Development Level in 2049

采用生产函数法对我国潜在增长率的测算表明，2030年在情景I、情景II和情景III下将分别下降到5．6％、4．9％和4．2％，2049年则分别下降到4．2％、3．7％和3．1％。2030年在情景I和情景II下，人均GDP将分别达到19132美元和17289美元，可以跨越高收入国家门槛；2049年在情景I、情景II和情景III下，人均GDP将分别达到48536美元、39636美元和31448美元。综合采用高收入区间法、典型样本法、中三分位法测算2049年高收入国家人均GDP平均水平应不低于43800美元、保守估计应不低于48000美元，表明我国通过努力有望达到高收入国家平均发展水平。应通过持续深化社会主义市场经济体制改革，从增加生产要素和提升全要素生产率两方面提升经济增长潜力，为确保达到高收入国家平均发展水平和实现第二个百年目标奠定基础。

The calculation of the potential growth rate of China using the production function method shows that in 2030, it will drop to 5.6%, 4.9% and 4.2% in scenarios I, II and III, respectively. And in 2049, it will drop to 4.2%, 3.7% and 3.1% un- der the three scenarios respectively. In 2030, under scenario I and II, GDP per capita will reach s 19,132 and S17,289, respec- tively, thus our country can cross the threshold for high-income countries; in 2049, per capita GDP in China will reach s 48,536 in scenarios l, s39,636 in scenarios II and s 31,448 in scenario III respectively. Based on the combination of high-income inter- val method, typical sample method and middle-tertile method, it is calculated that the average per capita GDP of high-income countries in 2049 should not be less than s43,800 and the conservative estimate should not be less than s 48,000. This result shows that our country is expected to reach the average development level of high income countries through hard work. We should keep deepening the reform of the socialist market economy system, enhancing the economic growth potential through in- creasing production factors and rising the total factor productivity, these actions are taken to ensure that our country can reach the average development level of high income countries and to lay the foundation for the realization of the second centenary goal