中国耕地利用转型格局及驱动因素研究——基于人均耕地面积视角

The pattern and mechanism of farmland transition in China from the perspective of per capita farmland area

土地利用转型与社会经济转型相互作用,共同推动中国城乡转型发展。耕地资源是保障粮食安全的核心要素,基于中国人多地少的"人地关系"特征,深入分析中国耕地利用转型规律,对于制定合理的耕地保护政策,推动中国农业生产现代化具有重要战略意义。本文以林地转型理论为依据,构建了人均耕地面积视角下的耕地利用转型理论模型,探讨了城镇化进程中中国乡村地区人均耕地面积由不断下降到逐步上升的趋势性转折过程。基于全国10km栅格分辨率人均耕地面积的变化,研究表明:1990—2010年中国71%的耕地覆盖区人均耕地面积由逐步下降转型为稳定上升,基本验证了本文提出的耕地利用转型理论模型。此外,利用空间计量回归模型,定量识别了自然因素、区位因素和社会经济因素驱动耕地利用转型的机制,研究发现城镇化进程中社会经济因素在推动耕地利用转型中的作用不断加强,不同因素在耕地利用转型不同阶段的驱动机制差异显著。

Land use transitions and socioeconomic transitions jointly drive urban-rural transformation development in China. Given the man-land relationship defined by large populations with relatively little farmland in China, farmland resources are a core element contributing to food security.Therefore, it is of great strategic significance to develop a reasonable policy of farmland protection and promote the modernization of agricultural production via analysis of the law of farmland transition in China. Based on the theory of forest transition, we constructed a theoretical model for farmland transition from the perspective of per capita farmland area（PCFA） change and discussed the changing process of PCFA from continuous decline to gradual increase in the process of urbanization. Based on transitions measured at a 10 km gridded resolution of PCFA across the country, this study found that China＇s PCFA transitioned from a gradual decline to a steady rise during 1990—2010. It contains 71% of the farmland coverage area, which basically validates the theoretical model of farmland transition. In addition, we used the spatial econometric regression model to quantitatively identify the driving mechanisms of natural factors, location factors and socioeconomic factors for farmland transition. We found that the role of socioeconomic factors in promoting the farmland transition has been strengthened during the process of urbanization, and there were obvious differences in the driving mechanism for farmland transition in different stages.Theoretical and practical research on farmland transition is the frontier exploration of land use transition. In addition, further study of farmland transition in rural areas provides theoretical guidance for the transformation of agricultural production.