基于CIM模型的山区高速公路施工风险评价研究

Research on Construction Risk Evaluation of Mountainous Expressway Based on CIM Model

山区高速公路建设中,事故易高发,科学合理的施工风险评价方法有利于预防和控制事故风险。引入控制区间和记忆模型（CIM）,结合风险分解结构（RBS）及层次分析法（AHP）,从参建人员、设备设施、自然环境与组织管理等4个方面建立了施工风险评价指标体系和风险评价模型,突出考虑了设施和自然环境风险,系统探讨了以CIM为核心的风险评价方法在山区高速公路施工中的应用,指出了环境因素和场地因素是山区高速公路施工中事故频发的主要诱因。最后以洛栾高速公路项目进行了实证分析,结果表明：洛栾高速公路项目的施工风险等级为Ⅳ级,属风险较高,其中,不良地质、不良地形、特种设备拆装不当、场地运输设施难搭设等6种风险因素是最主要的影响因素,评价结果与工程实际基本吻合。运用CIM模型进行的风险分析,克服和弥补了传统风险分析方法的主观性和局限性,提高了风险管理效率。

In the construction of mountainous expressway,the accident risk is high,and scientific and reasonable construction risk evaluation method is helpful to prevent and control the accident risk.In this paper the control interval and the memory model（CIM）is introduced,combining the risk decomposition structure（RBS）and the analytic hierarchy process（AHP）,the construction risk evaluation index system and model are established from four aspects：construction staff,equipment facilities,natural environment and organization and management,in which the risk of facilities and natural environment are highlighted,and the application of CIM as the core risk assessment method in mountainous expressway construction is systematically explored,and it is pointed out that environmental factors and site factors are major causes for frequent accidents in mountainous expressway construction.Finally analysis is made through verifications by Luoyang-Luanchuan Expressway.The results show that the construction risk level of the Luoyang-Luanchuan Expressway project is levelⅣ which is high.Among the risks,bad geology,bad terrain,improper equipment disassembly and assembly,difficult setting up of site transportation facilities and other six kinds of risk factors are the most important factors.The evaluation results and engineering practice is basically consistent.Use the CIM model to carry out the risk analysis can overcome and remedy the subjectivity and limitations of traditional risk analysis method,and improve the risk management efficiency.