湖南省能源碳排放峰值预测的研究

Forecast of Peak Energy Carbon Emissions in Hunan Province

碳排放峰值的有效控制,对一个地区的经济发展起着至关重要的作用。鉴于此,根据湖南省2006—2015年的统计数据,对湖南省人均GDP和能源效率的不同增长速度进行模拟,设计了9种情景方案,分别对湖南省未来30多年的能源碳排放峰值进行预测分析。结果表明,能源效率增长速度越慢,达到峰值的时间越早,峰值越小,人均GDP增长速度越慢,达到峰值的时间越早,而且峰值也越小;人口因素稳定的条件下,对于人均GDP的迅速增长,能源效率的提高是导致峰值出现的重要因素之一;在高高模式和中高模式下湖南不能在2030年之前达到碳排放峰值,人均GDP的增长所带来的碳排放影响非常大;相对人均GDP高中低3种模式按0.2%的变化对预测的影响来说,能源效率的高中低3种模式按0.2%变化对预测的影响更大。为此,实现碳峰值目标的减排政策设计,须充分考虑湖南经济未来发展所需的碳排放空间,避免经济过大波动。

Effective control of peak carbon emissions plays a crucial role in the development of one region. According to the statistical data of Hunan Province during 2006-2015, different growth rates of per capita GDP and energy efficiency in Hunan Province were simulated. Then, nine scenarios were designed to forecast the peak value of energy carbon emissions in Hunan province in the next 30 years. The research results show that the slower the energy efficiency grows and the earlier the peak value appears, the smaller the peak value is; the slower the growth rate of per capita GDP is, the earlier the peak value appears and the smaller the peak value is;when population is stable, the improvement of energy efficiency is one of the important factors leading to the peak value of the rapid growth of per capita GDP; in the high-high mode and medium-high mode, it cannot reach the peak value of carbon emissions before 2030 in Hunan Province, and the per capita GDP growth exerts an great impact on carbon emissions. Compared with the impacts of 0.2% change for high, medium and low modes of per capita GDP, the 0.2% change for the three modes of energy efficiency have greater impacts on the prediction results. Therefore, to design the carbon emission reduction policies of carbon peak value, it is necessary to take carbon emissions space in Hunan province to prevent sharp economic fluctuation