我国流动重力监测预报发展之再思考

Rethinking the Development of Earthquake Monitoring and Prediction in Mobile Gravity

主要分析2008年以来我国流动重力监测网络的发展、重力场时变在强震危险性判定中的作用以及重力监测仍需解决的问题。通过分析目前我国流动重力监测能力与预测研究的现状,探讨重力异常变化与地震预测三要素的特征指标,流动重力观测资料能较好地反映出地震孕育发生过程中的重力异常变化,尤其是6级以上的强震,并提出了我国流动重力监测预报发展战略之再思考。

This paper mainly analyzes the development of the mobile gravity monitoring network in China in 2008, the role of gravity field time-varying in the determination of strong earthquake risk, and the technical problems that gravity monitoring still needs to resolve. By analyzing current research on mobile gravity monitoring ability and prediction in China, the characteristics of three elements of gravity anomaly and earthquake prediction are discussed. The mobile gravity observation data can bet- ter reflect gravity anomalies in the process of earthquake preparation, especially the strong earth- quakes above grade 6, and put forward the reconsideration of the development strategy of mobile grav- ity monitoring and forecasting in China.