福建省农民消费需求与农村金融发展关系动态研究

Study on the Dynamic Relationship Between Farmers' Consumption Demand and Rural Financial Development in Fujian Province

通过收集福建农村金融发展水平、福建省农民人均消费支出水平、福建省农民人均可支配收入等一系列重要分析指标,基于协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验、误差修正模型、脉冲响应分析及方差分解等理论,研究福建省农民消费需求与农村金融发展之间关系。结果表明:(1)福建省农民人均消费支出水平、福建农村金融发展水平及农民人均可支配收入之间存在协整关系;(2)农民人均可支配收入、储蓄投资转化率是农民人均消费的格兰杰原因,农村金融相关率与农民人均消费互为格兰杰因果关系;(3)脉冲响应分析和方差分解表明农民人均消费支出水平受农民人均可支配收入、农村金融相关率影响。因此,改善福建省农村居民消费离不开农村金融的支持,农村金融既可以影响农村居民消费,也可间接提高农村居民收入,优化农村消费环境。

Study on the relationship between the rural consumption demand of Fujian province and the rural financial development is of great significance for the development of the economy. By collecting of Fujian rural per capita consumption expenditure level, per capita net income of farmer, and a series of important rural financial development level indicators,based on co-integration test, granger causality test,error correction model,impulse response theory and variance decomposition theory, study the relationship between rural consumption demand and rural financial development of Fujian province. The results show that： （1） There is a co-integration relationship between the level of peasants＂ consumption expenditure, the level of rural financial development and the per capita net income of Fujian Province; （2） Farmer disposable income, savings investment conversion rate is the granger causality- of farmers consumption, also the correlation rate of rural finance and famlers consumption is the granger causality- for each other; （3） hnpulse response analysis and variance analysis show that the level of rural consumption expenditure is affected by the per capita disposable income of farmers and the correlation rate of rural finance. Therefore, to improve rural residents＇ consumption in China can＇t depart from the support of rural finance. Rural finance can in- fluence the rural residents＇ consumption, also can indirectly increase the income of rural residents and optimize the rural consumption en- vironment.