江西与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易潜力研究——基于面板数据的引力模型实证分析

A Study of the Trade Potentials between Jiangxi Province and Countries along the Belt and Road Initiative——An Empirical Analysis of Gravity Model Based on the Panel Data

文章采用2005-2016年间面板数据,分析了江西与"一带一路"沿线17个国家双边贸易潜力,并运用贸易引力模型对江西与"一带一路"沿线主要国家贸易潜力进行了实证研究。研究发现:国家或地区GDP与双边贸易流量成正比,而空间距离与双边贸易流量成反比;与我国陆地接壤的国家对双边贸易流量存在正向影响;APEC成员国对双边贸易流量有正影响;不同沿线国家与江西贸易潜力不尽相同,潜力释放空间各异。在此基础上,就与不同沿线国家如何进一步开展合作,以便更大程度地提升双边贸易潜力提出了相关政策建议。

The paper analyzes the bilateral trade potentials between Jiangxi province and the seventeen countries along the Belt and Road Initiative by using the panel data from 2005 to 2016, and makes an empirical study on it by applying the trade gravity model. The study finds that： The GDP of countries or regions is directly proportional to the bilateral trade flow, whereas the space distance is inversely proportional to the bilateral trade flow; There is a positive impact on the bilateral trade flow in coun- tries bordering China; APEC members have a positive impact on the bilateral trade flow; The trade potentials between different countries along the Belt and Road Initiative and Jiangxi province are different, and have various space to grow. Accordingly, the paper puts forward the relevant policy recommendations on how to further cooperate with different countries along the Belt and Road Initiative so as to further enhanee the bilateral trade potentials.