ECMWF细网格产品在一次大到暴雨天气预报中的使用

Application of ECMWF Thin Grid Model Products in a Heavy Rainfall Forecast

利用常规气象观测、区域加密自动站、ECWMF细网格模式产品(0.25°×0.25°)资料,针对2017年7月23—24日发生在青海省东部地区一次大到暴雨天气过程进行分析,得出ECWMF细网格产品资料地面至中高层湿区的叠加区域及水汽通量散度的汇合区域对大到暴雨落区的预报具有较好的指示意义。对于大雨或暴雨以上量级的强降水,单一模式预报量级均偏小,落区偏西,而综合多种模式的相关产品能给预报提供更好的参考,本地化QPF客观产品对大到暴雨预报具有较好的参考价值。

Based on the data of conventional meteorological observation, regional automatic station encryption,and ECWMF thin grid model（0.25°×0.25°）, a heavy rainstorm occurred in eastern Qinghai Province from July 23 to 24, 2017 was analyzed. The results showed that the ECWMF was a good indicator for forecasting heavy rainstorm in the overlay area from ground to the high humidity area in the middle and upper layer and the convergence area of water vapor flux divergence. But for heavy rainfall and above, the single-model forecasting was small in magnitude and westward to rainfall zone, while related products of multiple models provided better reference for forecasting, and the localized QPF objective products had valuable reference for large-scale rainstorm forecast.