电商大型促销活动下商品销量的影响因素研究——基于天猫“双十一”的实证探究

Research on the Influencing Factors of Commodity Sales in E-commerce Large-scale Promotion Activities——An Empirical Study on T-mall's “Double 11”

以2016年天猫"双十一"的销售数据为切入点,利用网络爬虫、因子分析及回归分析等方法对影响"双十一"天猫平台各类商品销量的因素进行了探究,结果显示,质量得分对高端商品销量的影响更显著,知名度对于低涉入度商品的影响更显著,消费者对高价商品的折扣力度更敏感,折扣力度的边际效应随着商品使用期的增长而递增。随着商品价格的提高,价格对销量的影响由负向变为正向,而价格、销量及差评对于当天销量的调节作用也确实存在。

This paper takes the sales data of ＂Double 11＂ of Tmall in 2016 as the breakthrough point,explores the factors of affecting the day sales volume of all kinds of commodities on the Tmall in Nov. 11 byusing the methods of web crawler, factor analysis and regression analysis. The results display that thequality score impacts the sales volume of high-end goods more significantly, the affect of popularity ismore signiiicant to the low involvement goods,the consumers are more sensitive to discounts on higher priced goods,and the marginal utility of discount intensity increases progressively with the growth of commodityuse period. It has been proved that, as the commodity prices rise, the impact of price on sales volumechanges from negative to positive, also the price,sales volume and negative comment of commodities could regulate the sales volume in “Double 11”.