中国与“一带一路”沿线国家双向投资的就业效应研究

The Employment Effect of Bilateral Investment between China and the Belt and Road

开放条件下,对外投资通过数量效应和结构效应影响母国和东道国的就业,就业"双赢"在理论上是可能的。采用2003—2016年面板数据的分析表明:中国对"一带一路"沿线国家投资能够促进东道国的就业增长,且并没有导致中国国内就业岗位的流失;"一带一路"沿线国家对中国投资正向影响中国就业,但作用比较微弱;中国对"一带一路"沿线国家投资的就业效应与投资领域、东道国产业结构以及"一带一路"倡议的推动等有关;中国中央企业对"一带一路"沿线国家基础设施建设领域的投资有助于沿线国家的就业增长。中国应进一步加强与"一带一路"沿线国家的双向投资协作和劳动力市场领域的沟通合作,优化产能合作方式和投资结构,提升就业效应;同时,要增强引资策略与国内产业政策的匹配性,提升FDI的就业促进作用;还应客观评估中国OFDI的经济效应,降低外界对中国资本的偏见。

Under open condition,foreign investment affects the employment of the host countries and mother country by quantity effect and structural effect,and the double-win of employment is possible in theory. The empirical research by using panel data during 2003—2016 shows that China＇s OFDI promotes the employment growth along ＂the Belt and Road＂,but the employment elasticity is not consistent in different regions,and China＇s OFDI along BR does not lead to domestic jobs output. The FDI from BR can bring positive effect on China＇s employment,but the effect is relatively weak. The employment effect of FDI relates to investment areas and BR initiative,but has no direct relationship with the distribution of state-owned capital investment,central enterprises＇ investment in infrastructure construction is conducive to the growth of employment along the BR. China should strengthen the bilateral investment cooperation with the countries along the BR,optimize capacity cooperation and investment structure according to different stages of development; and actively adjust the domestic industrial policy and foreign capital utilization strategy to enhance the employment promotion effect of the BR investment in China.