碳排放市场一体化对异质性企业空间分布的影响

Spatial distribution of heterogeneous firms under the impact of carbon emissions trading market integration

随着全国碳排放交易体系的启动,碳市场一体化对企业区位选择、产业转移以及中国空间经济格局的影响是一个值得关注的问题。本文以碳市场一体化为背景,整合"新"新经济地理学(NNEG)和基于agent的计算经济学(ACE)的理论和方法,直接从异质性企业生产决策、碳交易和区位选择行为出发,建立了一个基于agent的两区域空间经济学模型和计算实验平台,并通过设置不同的政策情景,探讨了碳市场一体化背景下碳减排、碳交易、区域政策倾斜及碳配额分配方式等多种因素对企业的区位选择、产业集聚、东西部区域差异、效率与福利、碳交易活跃度等方面的动态影响。研究表明:(1)在没有东西部地区间碳减排政策差异和碳市场交易的情形下,碳减排政策并不必然改变企业的区位选择,这种环境管制能够加剧企业间竞争,从而提升各地区企业的生产效率。(2)在没有碳市场交易的情形下,对西部地区的碳政策倾斜将影响企业区位选择,改变经济的空间格局,缩小地区之间的差异,但缩小区域差距的效果随着碳约束的收紧而减弱。(3)在同时存在区域碳政策倾斜和碳市场交易的情形下,碳市场交易有利于企业向东部发达地区集聚,企业边际成本降低,两地区企业总数量增多,社会总体福利增加。(4)碳配额的分配方式直接决定碳交易的生命力。分配规则尽可能地纳入企业异质性因素不仅能提升碳交易活跃度和持久度,还能优化资源配置,提升全局经济效率。本文还就整合空间经济学和基于agent的计算经济学的研究方法和技术路线进行了讨论。

As carbon trading in China is about to commence,the effect of carbon market integration on China＇s industrial relocation and economic geography calls for theoretical research. Pollution Haven Hypothesis discussed the relationship between pollution（ including GHG emission） and FDI of pollution-intensive industries,while the effect of carbon emission trading on companies＇ decision-making of location is yet to be explored. Combining‘new＇new economic geography（ NNEG） and agent-based computational economics（ ACE）,this paper incorporated production and location decision-making of heterogeneous companies,as well as carbon emission trading,into a dual-region spatial economics model on a computational platform based on agent. The paper set different policy scenarios to discuss the dynamic effects of carbon trading and carbon quota allocation on location decision-making,efficiency and regional development equality in the context of carbon market integration. Results showed： first,without carbon emission trading or carbon quota allocation favoring the western China,carbon emission reduction policy（ carbon quota） doesn＇t necessarily alter firm location choices,but may increase efficiency of firms through competition. Second,without carbon emission trading,carbon quota allocation favoring the western China may influence firm location choices,bridging the gap between the western and the eastern,but the effect gets weaker when carbon constraint tight. Third,with both carbon emission trading and carbon quota allocation favoring the western China,firms cluster in the eastern China,increasing social welfare with marginal costs decreased. Fourth,the allocation of carbon quota determines vitality of trading activity,and firm heterogeneity should be taken into account. These results contribute to literature in spatial economics,ACE model and carbon market integration in China.