1961—2015年鲁西南地区热量资源时空变化特征

Spatio-temporal change characteristics of heat resources in the southwest of Shandong province during 1961-2015

为了探讨鲁西南地区热量资源的时空变化特征及其对农业生产的影响,利用1961—2015年鲁西南地区9个气象站的平均气温和无霜期观测资料,分为1961—1990年(Ⅰ)和1991—2015年(Ⅱ)两个研究时段,采用气候倾向率法、Mann-Kendall突变检测法和自主研发的eqlds 2015绘图软件,分析了鲁西南地区热量资源的时空变化特征。结果表明:1961—2015年鲁西南地区稳定通过≥0℃、≥5℃和≥10℃活动积温均呈极显著的上升趋势(P<0.01),气候倾向率分别为66.4℃·d/10 a、54.3℃·d/10 a和88.6℃·d/10 a;近55 a鲁西南地区无霜期为286—304 d,无霜期总体以1.0 d/10 a的速率呈延长趋势。在空间分布上,近55 a鲁西南地区活动积温呈由低纬度地区向高纬度地区逐渐减少的分布特征,表现为鲁西南地区南部县区(曹县、成武、单县)≥0℃、≥5℃和≥10℃活动积温偏多、鲁西南地区北部县区(鄄城、郓城)≥0℃、≥5℃和≥10℃活动积温偏少。鲁西南地区无霜期的变化具有一定的区域性特征,无霜期与海拔高度之间无明显的线性关系。鲁西南地区热量资源在20世纪90年代发生突变,突变后热量资源增加明显。从两个时段来看,鲁西南地区Ⅱ时段较Ⅰ时段≥0℃、≥5℃和≥10℃活动积温增加了169.4—301.2℃·d,Ⅱ时段较Ⅰ时段无霜期平均延长了3 d,总体来说鲁西南地区目前热量资源处于较丰富的阶段。

Based on the temperature and measured meteorological data during the frost-free period at the 9 meteorological stations in southwestern Shandong from 1961 to 2015, the spatio-temporal change characteristics of heat resources during the period Ⅰ（ 1961-1990） and the period Ⅱ（ 1991-2015） were analyzed using a linear regression method,Mann-Kendall break detector and independent research drawing software. The results show that the active accumulated temperature ≥0 ℃,≥5 ℃ and ≥10 ℃ all show significant increasing trend（ P〈0. 01） with the climate tendency rate of 66. 4 ℃·d/10 a, 54. 3 ℃·d/10 a and 88. 6 ℃·d/10 a from 1961 to 2015, respectively. The duration of the frost-free period is between 286 d and 304 d and shows an increasing trend with a rate of1. 0 d/10 a. The annual average temperature and accumulated temperature all decrease with increase of latitude and are higher in southeastern counties such as Caoxian,Chengwu and Shanxian county and are lower in northern counties like Juancheng and Yuncheng county. The frost-free period has no significant linear relationship with altitude and its change shows a certain regional characteristic. The heat resources occur abrupt climatic change in the1990 s and then significantly increase. In addition, the active accumulated temperature and the frost-free period during the period Ⅱ are 169. 4-301. 2 ℃·d higher and 3 d longer than those during the period Ⅰ, respectively. As a result,the heat resources of period Ⅱ are higher than those of period Ⅰ.