全球影响力分析框架下的中哈能源关系研究

Research on China-Kazakhstan Energy Relations under Analysis Framework of Global Influence

作为＂一带一路＂沿线国家,哈萨克斯坦以其丰富的油气等资源储量和重要的战略地位成为我国能源战略的一个重要方向。当前,中哈能源合作具备很好的现实基础,两国在能源供需上存在很强的互补性,能源领域合作成果丰硕。但中哈能源关系不仅受到双边关系的影响,还受到国际形势的影响,各大国极力谋取哈萨克斯坦能源的战略行为,为中哈能源合作带来了一些挑战,其中以美国、俄罗斯、日本、印度为代表。研究结果表明,两国能源合作存在一定的潜在风险,多方面的助力与阻力并存：地理位置相邻、政策对接顺利、全球能源形势有利以及双边和多边合作机制不断完善等条件,助力中哈深化能源合作关系;而哈萨克斯坦国内社会矛盾与中亚国家间矛盾突出、国际能源竞争激烈以及＂中国威胁论＂等阻力则阻碍了两国能源合作的推进。因此,应该加快建设中亚能源走廊以挖掘里海周边地区的能源潜力,坚持＂走出去＂战略,多元化能源合作方式,完善人才培养合作机制,联合上合组织成员国共同应对风险,妥善处理好相关利益国的竞合关系,以促进两国能源关系进一步巩固和升温。

As a country along ＂the Belt and Road＂,Kazakhstan has become an important direction of China′s energy strategy with its rich oil and gas reserves and important strategic position.At present,China-Kazakhstan energy cooperation has a good practical basis.The two countries have a strong complementarity in energy sup-ply,and the bilateral cooperation in energy field has yielded fruitful results.However,China-Kazakhstan energy relations are affected by not only bilateral relations but also international situations.The strategic behavior of great powers,including the United States,Russia,Japan and India,to seek the energy of Kazakhstan has brought some challenges to China-Kazakhstan energy cooperation.The results show that there are some poten-tial risks in the energy cooperation between the two countries,and there are many kinds of obstacles and synergies.The close geographical proximity,smooth policy integration,favorable global energy situation and continuous improvement of bilateral and multilateral cooperation mechanisms have helped deepen China-Kaza-khstan energy cooperation,but the social contradictions in Kazakhstan,contradictions among central Asian countries, fierce international energy competition and ＂ China threat theory ＂ have hindered the energy cooperation between the two countries.Therefore,the construction of central Asian energy corridor should be speeded up to tap the energy potential of the areas around the Caspian Sea,the ＂going out＂ policy should be adhered to,the ways of energy cooperation should be diversified,the personnel training cooperation mechanism should be improved,the member countries of Shanghai Cooperation Organization should be united to jointly respond to risks,and the co-opetition relationships between related interests should be properly handled,so as to promote the further consolidation and warming of China-Kazakhstan energy relations.