一种基于失效率曲线的电网顺控改造决策方法研究

Decision Making Method of Grid Sequence Control Reformation Based on Equipment Failure Rate Curve

电网顺控改造初始投入大、成本周期长,针对其建立合理的决策模型尤为关键。首先分析了顺控改造、设备失效率以及全寿命周期成本年值3者间的关系,并给出了设备失效率曲线的建立及修正方法。在此基础上,建立了以设备失效率曲线为基础、全寿命周期成本分析为方法的可反应改造时间、改造方式、改造区域的单体设备改造三维模型和设备集改造三维模型。并采用RBTS-79系统作为算例分析,验证了该方法的经济性及优越性,为电网顺控改造工程提供理论依据。

Grid sequence control reformation takes large initial investment and long cost cycle grid, it’ s very important to establish a rational decision model. The relationship among sequence control reformation, equipment failure rate and whole life cycle cost annual value is analyzed, and the establishment and correction method of equipment failure rate curve is proposed. On this basis, 3D model of monomer equipment reconstruction and equipment set reformation which can reflect retrofit time, mode and area are established with the method of life cycle cost analysis, based on the equipment failure rate curve. The RBTS-79 system is used as an example to demonstrate the economy and superiority of this method, which can provide the theoretical basis for the grid sequence control reformation projects.