美国降低企业所得税对中国经济贸易影响分析

A Study on Impact of US Cutting Corporate Income Tax on Chinese Economy and Trade

本文运用GTAP模型,从宏观与行业两个方面,分析美国降低企业所得税对中国经济贸易的影响,同时,还分析中国降低企业所得税,对冲美国降税政策影响的效果,结论如下:(1)在宏观经济影响方面,美国降低企业所得税对中国的GDP、居民收入与消费支出、资本收益率与贸易条件可能产生不利影响;在产业影响方面,美国对企业减税政策可提升中国各产业部门的产出水平与出口贸易规模,但会造成中国进口贸易规模下降与外贸顺差增加,还会引致中国出口商品价格下跌;(2)如果为应对美国减税政策,中国也相应降低企业所得税,则能够减少美国减税政策对中国经济贸易的影响,而且随着中国降低企业所得税力度的不断加大,美国降税政策对中国经济贸易的影响逐渐减小,但难以消除此政策对中国经济贸易的影响。

This paper uses GTAP model to analyze the impact of US cutting corporate income tax on Chinese economy and trade from macro and industrial perspectives. It also explores the effects of China reducing corporate income tax tO hedge the impacts. The study concludes ： （1） In terms of macroeconomic impact, the US cutting of corporate income tax may have negative effects on Chinese GDP, household income and consumer expenditure, as well as, rate of capital returns and terms of trade. In terms of industrial impact, the US cutting tax policy can increase the outputs and exports of industries in China, but it will reduce Chinese imports and increase its foreign trade surplus, and lower prices of Chinese export commodities. （2） If China cuts corporate income tax in response to the US policy, the impact on Chinese economy and trade will be eliminate the impact. gradually diminished, but it is difficult to eliminate the impact.