基于舆情演化生命周期的突发事件网络舆情风险评估分析

The Analysis of Public Opinion Risk Assessment of Sudden Events Based on Public Relation Life Cycle

【目的/意义】突发事件带来的网络危机舆情严重影响了社会的安全以及正常的社会公众秩序。【方法/过程】为此,结合灰色统计法以及AHP分析法构建网络舆情演化周期各阶段的风险指标体系,分析计算各个风险指标的权重系数。【结果/结论】从分析结果中可以看到,目前舆情危机的整体的风险程度较高,对舆情前期的防范和传播中的控制能够最大程度上避免舆情危机风险的产生,而增强网络的信息化程度、着力培养网络信息化人才、完善行业媒体的整体运营环境以及增强舆论导向等具体操作能够有效改善舆情危机风险。

【Purpose/significance】Network crisis caused by emergencies public opinion has seriously affected the social security and the normal social order.【Method/process】Combined with the gray statistic method and AHP analysis method,the article makes researches on the each stage of network public opinion evolution period with the risk index system, and makes analysis and calculation on each risk index weight coefficient.【Result/conclusion】From the analysis results, the overall degree of risk on the current public opinion crisis is high, the prevention and dissemination of public opinion on the early stage can avoid the risk of public opinion crisis. The enhancement on the network information, the cultivation of network information talents, and the improvement on the overall operating environment of the industry media, guiding the public opinion and other specific operations can effectively reduce the risk of public opinion crisis.