内部资本市场效率、财务危机传染与预警——基于政府层级与调节效应视角的分析

Internal Capital Market Efficiency, Financial Contagion and Financial Crisis Warning——Based on the Perspectives of Government Level and Adjustment Effect

分析了企业集团财务危机的传染效应以及内部资本市场对传染效应的调节作用,同时加入政府层级性质考察其对财务危机传染效应的影响。研究结果表明：民营企业集团的财务危机传染效应大于国有企业集团,而地方政府控制企业集团的财务危机传染效应大于中央控制企业集团;内部资本市场效率对财务危机传染效应具有抑制作用,中央国有企业集团的调节效应大于地方国有企业集团;将传染效应、调节效应和政府层级同时应用到危机预测模型中,可以显著提高模型的预测能力。

This paper mainly studies the contagion effect of financial crisis and the regulative effect of internal capital market on contagion effect in enterprise group, where we also investigate the influence of government level. We conclud as follows. Firstly, the financial contagion effect in private enterprises is greater than that in state-owned enterprises, while the financial contagion effect in enterprises controlled by local government is greater than that in enterprises controlled by central government. Secondly, considering the inhibition effect of internal capital market efficiency on financial contagion, it is found that the regulative effect of central stateowned enterprises is greater than that in local state-owned enterprises. Finally, the predictive power of the crisis prediction model could be greatly improved after being introduced the factors of contagion effect, regulative effect and the government level.