融资规模与实体经济增长的非线性研究——基于吉林省面板数据的分析

Nonlinear Research on the Scale of Financing and the Growth of Real Economy——Based on the Analysis of Jilin Province's Panel Data

过去三十余年,"银行主导型"金融结构有力地支撑了中国经济的跨越式发展。当前中国正处于工业化后期,金融结构内部正在发生一些重要的变化。一方面,银行信贷对实体经济的支撑作用有所放缓,以股票、债券为交易标的直接融资市场逐步发展壮大起来,金融"脱媒"现象在社会资金配置过程中更加频繁的出现。另一方面,宏观经济的持续发展又反过来推动金融服务由"供给推动型"向"需求追随型"适时转变(1),金融深化进程向前推进,社会投融资体系正经历着一轮深刻的变革。

In the past 30 years, the ＂bank-led＂ financial structure has strongly supported the leap-forward development of China＇s economy. At present, China is in the late stage of industrialization, and some important changes are taking place inside the financial structure. On the one hand, the role of bank credit in supporting the real economy has slowed down. The direct financing market with stocks and bonds as trading targets has gradually developed and expanded. The phenomenon of financial ＂disintermediation＂ appears more frequently in the process of social capital allocation. On the other hand, the sustained development of macro-economy in turn promotes the timely transformation of financial services from ＂supply-driven＂ to ＂demand-following＂. The process of financial deepening is advancing, and the social investment and financing system is undergoing a profound transformation.