供给侧结构性改革下辽宁省生产性服务业与制造业的互动分析

Research on the Interaction between Productive Service Industry and Manufacturing Industry of Liaoning Province Under the Background of “Supply-side Structural Reform” Policy

为探寻供给侧结构性改革背景下,东北地区应该制定何种产业政策促进经济良性增长,以辽宁省为研究对象,通过构建生产性服务业与制造业的向量自回归模型,并进行了实证分析。结果表明,辽宁省生产性服务业的发展对制造业有负影响;制造业的发展对生产性服务业有促进作用,但是效果不明显。辽宁省生产性服务业和制造业不存在长期动态互动趋势关系。制造业是生产性服务业的格兰杰原因,而生产性服务业不是制造业发展的格兰杰原因。生产性服务业并没有起到推进制造业发展的作用,反而表现为与制造业存在一定的争夺资源现象。根据上述结论,提出了在供给侧结构性改革背景下,促进辽宁省二三产业发展的政策建议。

Industrial policies should be formated in Northeast China under the background of ＂structural refore1 of supply side＂ policy are explored. Taking Liaoning Province as research object, a vector autoregressive model of productive service industry and manufacturing industry is established. The empirical analysis shows that the development of productive services industry in Liaoning has a negative impact on manufacturing industry and the development of manufacturing industry has a slight positive effect on the productive service industry; there is no long-tern1 dynamic interaction in the productive service industry and manufacturing industry in Liaoning Province; manufacturing industry is the Granger cause of the productive service industry, and the productive smwice industry is not the Granger cause of manufacturing industrial development; productive stowice industry does not play a role in promoting industrial development. It has shown a phenomenon of resource grabbing with manufacturing industry. Based on the above conclusions, some useful suggestions have been proposed to promoting the development of secondary and tertiary industries in Liaoning Province under the background of supply-side structural reform.