公路交通决策气象服务需求分析

Demand Analysis of Meteorological Decision-making Service for Highway Traffic

采用问卷调查的方式,对气象、交通、公安等多部门公路交通决策气象服务关注的气象要素、产品类型和时段、服务改进方向等需求进行了调研。利用专家评分法对调查内容进行评估分析,并提出提升公路交通决策气象服务能力的相关建议。结果表明:专家对现有公路交通决策气象服务工作总体满意度较高,普遍认为公路交通决策气象服务在公路运输、运行调度、应急救援等方面发挥作用明显;行业领域不同需求的气象要素有所不同,交通部门专家对公路积雪、降雪、霾等要素给出的需求权重值明显高于气象部门专家给出的;不同类型的决策服务产品关注的气象要素和时效也有所不同,其中,监测类产品对低能见度、道路积雪要素最为关注;预报类产品对雨雪和大雾要素最为关注;预警类产品对大雾最为关注;而影响评估类产品对低能见度最为关注。监测类产品主要关注逐小时时段;预报和预警类产品重点关注未来3—12 h时段;而影响评估类产品主要关注日、月、季度时段。

Using the method of questionnaire survey, the demand about concerned meteorological factors, product type and time, service improving aspects of highway meteorological decision-making service for meteorological, transportation, public security and other departments was investigated. The content of the survey was evaluated and analyzed by expert scoring, and the suggestion was given to how to improve the ability of highway meteorological decision-making service. The results indicated that higher satisfaction for the work of highway meteorological decision-making service was given by experts, and experts generally believed the work playing an obvious role in highway transportation, operation dispatching and emergency rescue. It had different demand for meteorological factors in different industry, while the demand of the expert in the transportation department was obvious higher than in the meteorological department for the factors such as road snow, snowfall, haze and so on. It was also different for the meteorological factors and valid period of time needed by different type of meteorological decision-making product. For the factors, low visibility and road snow cover were most needed by monitoring products, rain, snow and fog were most needed by forecasting products, fog was most needed by early warning products, and low visibility was most needed by impact assessment products. Monitoring products were most focused on the hourly period of time, forecasting products most focused on the next 3 12 hours period of time, and impact assessment products most focused on the day, month and quarter period of time.