中国海洋资源开发强度时空格局演化及影响因素分析

Temporal and Spatial Pattern Evolution and Influencing Factors Analysis of China's Marine Resources Development Intensity

采用层次分析—熵值法结合D-S证据合成理论确定权重并建立评价模型,分析我国沿海11省区2002—2015年的海洋资源开发强度及其时空演化特征。结果表明:(1)我国整体的海洋资源开发强度从2002年的0. 199提升到2015年的0.370。(2)核密度曲线分布特征由"尖峰对称"分布向"宽峰长尾"转变。(3)海洋资源开发强度空间格局变化明显,高开发强度的省区由2002年的0个增加到2015年的2个,低开发强度省区由8个减少到3个,空间分布上以天津、河北最高,其次是江苏,其他省区开发强度均较低。(4)我国海洋空间资源和旅游资源开发强度以天津、河北、江苏、上海等较高,海南、福建等较低;海洋矿产资源开发强度天津、河北远高于其他省区,各省区海洋化学资源开发强度均很高,天津等6省区均在0. 75以上,江苏等3省区逐年下降;近海养殖强度以福建、广东、广西、海南较高,上海较低,近海捕捞强度以河北、山东、江苏、浙江、福建较高,广东、广西、海南较低。(5)经济发展水平对海洋资源开强度有正向影响,影响系数为0. 047,产业结构水平影响系数为0. 838,正向影响明显;社会投资水平对海洋资源开发产业的影响系数为2. 28E-06,表明对海洋资源开发强度的增加有一定的影响;人力科研水平具有明显正向影响,影响系数为109. 764;对外开放水平的影响系数为-0. 0003,影响较小;政府扶持力度的影响系数为-2. 097,负向影响较大。

This paper used hierarchical analysis-entropy method combined with D-S evidence synthesis theory to determine the weights and establish an evaluation model to analyze the strength of marine resources development in the 11 coastal provinces from 2002 to 2015. The results showed： China＇s overall development of marine resources increased from 0. 199 in 2002 to 0. 370 in 2015. The distribution characteristics of the kernel density curve changed from ＂spike symmetry＂distribution to ＂wide peak long tail＂. The spatial pattern of the development intensity of marine resources changed obviously,the provinces of high development intensity were from 0 in2002 to 2 in 2015,and the region of low development intensity was reduced from 8 to 3,the space distribution was the highest in Tianjin and Hebei,followed by Jiangsu,other provinces development strength was low. The development intensity of China＇ s marine space resources showed that Tianjin,Hebei,Jiangsu,Shanghai were high,while Hainan and Fujian were low. The exploitation intensity was far higher than that of other provinces in Tianjin and Hebei. The intensity of marine chemical resources development in all provinces was high. The development intensity of marine chemical resources in all provinces was high,with 6 provinces including Tianjin all above 0.75,and 3 provinces such as Jiangsu declining year by year. The offshore aquaculture intensity was higher in Fujian,Guangdong,Guangxi,Hainan,Shanghai was lower,and the offshore fishing intensity was in Hebei,Shandong,Jiangsu,Zhejiang,and Fujian were all higher,with lower prices in Guangdong,Guangxi,and Hainan. The level of economic development had a positive impact on the opening intensity of marine resources. The impact coefficient was 0. 047,the impact coefficient of industrial structure level was 0. 838,and the positive impact was obvious. The impact coefficient of social investment level on marine resources development industry was 2. 28 E-06. It had a certain positive impact on the increase of the intensity of marine resources development. The level of human scientific research had a significant positive impact,the impact coefficient was 109. 764. The impact coefficient of the openness level was-0. 0003,the impact was small. The impact of government support the coefficient was-2. 097,which had a large negative influence.