矩阵模型在稻纵卷叶螟预测预报中的应用

Application of Matrix Modei to the Prediction of Rice Leaf-loiier Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guenee

根据稻纵卷叶螟迁入量数据和生命表资料,提出矩阵模型模拟卷叶螟种群动态,预测发生期,并试图预报发生量,预报防治适期.模型预报田间发生期是准确的.预报发生量仍需改进.

Rice leaf—roller is the major pest insect of rice and the immigration amount has great effects on its dynamics.Based on the data of the immig ration amount and the life table, a matrix model was proposed to simu late the population dynamics of rice leaf—roller and used to predict the optimal period of management and to forecast the amount of occurr enc-e The model predicts the period of occurrence ia the field quite well and there is still something to improve in the forecast of the amount of occurrence.