2015年中国大陆流行性感冒流行特征分析

Analysis on the epidemiological characteristics of influenza in China's Mainland in 2015

目的对2015 年流行性感冒的监测结果及流行特征进行分析总结，对2016 的流行趋势进行预判。方法统计中国流感监测信息系统以及突发公共卫生事件信息管理系统2015 年全年中国大陆地区的流感样病例（ILI）监测数据以及流感样病例爆发疫情数据。结果2015 年夏季南方出现了流行高峰，北方维持在低水平，均为A（H3N2）亚型占绝对优势。南北方省份均在12月份开始相继进入2015~2016 冬春季流感流行季节，甲型H1N1、A（H3N2）和B 型共同流行。结论预计2016 年2 月下旬，流感活动水平将达到峰值，春夏季中国大陆省份将以甲型H1N1、A（H3N2）和B 型流感共同流行，但以甲型H1N1 流感为主要流行株。

Objective To predict the epidemic trends of influenza in mainland in China in 2016 through retrospective analysis of the surveillance data and epidemic characteristics in 2015. Methods The data on influenza-like illness(ILI) and its outbreak were obtained from Chinese Influenza Surveil-lance Information System (CISIS) and Chinese Public Health Emergency Management Information Sys-tem (PHEMIS)in 2015, and statistically analyzed. Results Influenza was peaked in summer in south China in 2015, and maintained at a low level in north China, with subtype of influenza A(H3N2) being dominated. Provinces in both south and north China were in epidemic seasons in winter and spring of 2015 and 2016, and the viruses were associated with influenza A(H1N1/pdm09 virus, H3N2) and B.Conclusion Influenza may be active and peaked in the third of February 2016, and the prevalence is as-sociated with influenza A(H1N1/pdm09 virus, H3N2) and B viruses, with subtype A(H1N1)pdm09 vi-rus being predominant strain.