基于空间计量的碳排放量影响因素分析

Analysis of factors affecting carbon emissions based on spatial econometrics

在对2000-2014年中国30个地区的碳排放量进行估算的基础上,利用Moran’s I检验法对区域碳排放量进行了空间相关性检验。在此基础上以扩展的STIRPAT模型为理论基础,借助空间回归模型研究了人口结构、产业结构、能源结构、技术水平等因素对碳排放量的影响效应。结果显示:产业结构、人口规模和技术水平是碳排放量的主要影响因素,产业结构和人口规模对碳排放量的影响是正向的,技术水平对碳排放量的影响是负向的。

The present study,based on the estimate of the carbon emissions of30provinces in China from2000to2014,tests the spatial autocorrelation of carbon emissions by exploiting Moran's I Index.On this basis,the extended STIRPAT Model is taken as the theoretical perspective and spatial regression model is employed in studying the effect of demographic structure,industry structure,energy structure,technological level and other factors on carbon emissions.The result shows that industry structure,demographic structure,and technological level are the main influential factors on carbon emissions,and that the effect of industry structure and demographic size is positive while that of technical level is negative.