第三产业增加值对城镇职工就业的影响

Influence of the Added Value of the Third Industry to Urban Employment

选取1990年至2015年间我国第三产业增加值与城镇就业人口数量的年度数据,建立VAR模型判断两变量之间的滞后关系。通过建立多项式分布滞后模型,分析第三产业发展对城镇就业的推动作用及二者数据关系。最后,在实证研究基础上提出促进第三产业发展和城镇就业的对策建议。

This paper took the annual data of the added value of the third industry and the urban employment number from1990to2015,and constructed VAR model to judge the lag relationship between the two variables.What’s more,the PDL model was constructed to analyze the promoting effect and data relationship of the third industry to the urban employment.Finally,some tactics and suggestions were proposed according to the empirical research results.