论中国地级市政府社会支出均等化

On the Equalization of Prefecture-level City Governments' Social Expenditures in China

基于2007-2012年地级市数据发现,自中央提出"基本公共服务均等化"目标以来,地方政府间社会支出不平等性尽管有所降低,但仍存在"反弹"趋势。计量分析表明,人均财政支出、财政依赖度、城镇化对人均社会支出存在正向影响,人口密度、外资比重则存在负向影响。夏普里值回归分解显示,财力差距与城镇化水平等结构是导致社会支出不平等的主要原因。上级转移支付发挥着十分有限的均等化作用。公共服务成本差异以及政府吸引外资的竞争行为不利于社会支出均等化水平的提高。因此,推动社会支出均等化不仅要着眼于加大转移支付投入力度、规范政府竞争行为,更要深化体制改革,统筹城乡与区域均衡发展。

According to the 2007-2012 prefecture-level city data,since the central government set the 'equalization of basic public services' objective,the inequality of social expenditures among local governments have been alleviated,but the situation may likely reverse. Statistical analyses reveal that the fiscal expenditure per capital,fiscal reliance,and urbanization have positive effects on social expenditure,while population density and foreign investment proportion negative. Shapley value regression analysis further indicates that 1)social spending inequality mainly comes from the disparity of fiscal capacity and difference in levels of urbanization;2)transfer payment from the upper-level government has only limited influence on equalization of social spending. Therefore,the equalization of social expenditures rely not only on increased transfer payment and standardized governmental competition,but also more on the deepening of institutional reform and balanced urban,rural,and regional development.