人力资本、经济增长与空间溢出效应——基于我国1978—2015年省级面板数据的实证研究

Human Capital,Economic Growth and Spatial Spillover Effect:An Empirical Study of China's Provincial Panel Data from 1978 to 2015

中国经济社会发展正趋向融合和协调,开展省际、区域之间的空间影响对我国省域人力资本与经济增长关系的理论分析和实证研究已不可或缺。文章突破区域经济相互独立假说,选取我国1978—2015年的省级面板数据,检验了人力资本对经济增长的空间效应。实证结果表明,初级教育人力资本对经济增长产生显著的空间抑制作用,这需要引起关注;中级教育人力资本对经济增长产生显著的空间效应,但无法明确是否有利;高级教育人力资本和健康人力资本对经济增长产生显著有利的空间溢出效应。有鉴于此,我国需充分鼓励高级教育人力资本带头发挥创新能力,扩大溢出价值;要注重提升健康人力资本;要积极改革初级教育和中等教育,避免负向效应,推动省际协调发展,实现区域经济的高质量增长。

China’s economic and social development toward integration and coordination,to carry out the provincial and regional spatial effect is indispensable for theoretic research and practical analysis about the relationship between human capital and economic growth provincially.This paper makes a breakthrough to the hypothesis of regional economy mutually independent,and selects the panel data of China’s provinces from1978to2015to investigate the spatial effect of human capital on economic growth.The empirical analysis shows that human capital with primary education has a significantly positive restraining spatial effect on economic growth,which is worth to arouse concern.Human capital with secondary education has an obviously positive spatial effect,but unable to specify whether the effect is favorable or not.Human capital with advanced education and healthy human capital have a significant positive spillover spatial effect on economic growth.Accordingly,China needs to encourage the initiative of human capital with advance education to make innovation to enlarge the spillover effect.Great importance should be attached to promote healthy human capital.The reform should be made in primary education and secondary education to avoid the negative spatial effect,promote the balanced development among provinces and achieve the high-quality economic growth.