新结构经济学与“一带一路”:转入国的筛选和转出产业的甄别

New Structural Economics and “The Belt and Road”:Selection of Countries Taking in Transferred-out Industries from China and Screening of Transferred-out Industries from China

根据新结构经济学关于产业转移的理论分析,转出国人均GDP应为承接产业转出的对象国的1-3倍,筛选出"一带一路"沿线承接产业转移的对象国。以中国整体作为产业转出对象,共有21个国家可以作为合适的承接产业转移的对象国;假如以中国各省市区作为产业转出对象,共有50个合适的承接产业转移的对象国。同时,根据新结构经济学对比较优势的阐述,通过比较"一带一路"沿线国与中国中低技术产业的人均工资,筛选适合转出的产业,发现较适于转移出的产业主要包括食品与饮料、服装、纺织品、非金属矿物、基本金属、金属制品等产业。

According to the theoretical analysis of industrial transfer in the New Structural Economics,the per capita GDP of the country from which industries are transferred should be1-3times that of the countries which will take in the transferred-out industries.And thus,target countries,along the"the Belt and Road",which will take in transferred-out industries are selected.Considering the whole of China as an object where industries are transferred out,21countries are suitable to take in the transferred-out industries in total;considering provincial administrative regions of China as the objects where industries are transferred out,50countries are suitable.Meanwhile,based on the elaboration of comparative advantage in New Structural Economics,by comparing percapita wages of the countries along"the Belt and Road"and China in low-tech industries,this passage screens the industries which are fit for transferring out,and finds some appropriate industries,mainly including food and beverages,apparel,textiles,non-metallic mineral products,basic metals and fabricated metal products and so on.