中国海洋环境治理政策的概览、变迁及演进趋势——基于1982—2015年161项政策文本的实证研究

Overview,changes and developing trend of China's marine governance policy:an empirical research based on 161 policy texts from 1982 to 2015

改革开放以来,为了应对海洋经济持续开发带来的海洋环境问题,自1982年《海洋环境保护法》颁布以来,中国中央政府及各个海洋管理部门制定了一系列的海洋环境治理政策,成为实现海洋生态环境可持续发展的重要工具。海洋环境治理政策体系的完善程度和实践效果直接影响海洋强国建设和"一带一路"战略的实现,因此,运用科学的方法探究政策体系的变迁之路,整体性描绘政策体系全貌具有重要的意义和价值。以1982—2015年中国国家层面出台的海洋环境治理政策文件为分析样本,运用内容分析法和词频分析法,结合聚类分析、共词分析和多维尺度分析等基本统计分析方法,可以总结出科学、客观、真实的政策变迁特点。根据实证分析结果,文章将海洋环境治理政策变迁划分为四个阶段,即1982—1995年的政策起始阶段,1996—2005年政策的平稳执行阶段,2006—2011年政策的深化调整阶段,2012—2015年政策的战略发展阶段,且每个阶段的政策变迁均呈现出不同的特点。再将政策变迁过程中展现的直观特点代入到公共政策分析框架内,可以提取出政策变迁的历史逻辑,即政策理念从"问题导向型"向"多元协同型"转变,政策结构从"简单松散型"发展为"系统紧密型",政策过程和决策关注点逐渐向"后决策阶段"迁移。最后,提出未来的海洋环境治理政策内容应该更加侧重制度供给,建立政策的评价指标体系和绩效评价制度,建立多元的政策工具选择使用模式并且推动政策工具创新。

Since the promulgation of the Marine Environmental Protection Law in1982,in order to cope with the marine environmental problems caused by continuing economic exploitation,Chinese central government and the various marine management departments have developed a series of marine environmental governance policies aiming to achieve marine ecology,and they become important tools for environmental sustainable development.The perfection degree and the practice effect of the marine environmental governance policy system directly affect the realization of the construction of ocean power and‘the Belt and Road’strategy.So,using the scientific method to explore the changes of the policy system and depict the whole policy system has great significance.With sample analysis of marine environmental policies formulated in1982-2015that decided by China’s central government and administrative departments of marine,using content analysis and quantitative frequency extraction and basic statistical analysis methods,such clustering analysis,co-word network analysis and scale analysis,we can sum up the scientific,objective and veritable policy features.According to the results of the empirical analysis,the study finds that the change of the marine environmental governance policies can be divided into four stages,namely,1982-1995is the initial stage of policy;1996-2005is the smooth implementation of the policy stage;2006-2011is the deepening of the adjustment stage of policy;2012-2015is the policy of the strategic development stage.Furthermore,the policy texts of each stage show different features.By bringing the intuitive features of the policy change process into the framework of public policy analysis,the study has extracted the historical logic of policy change.First,policy principle change from‘problem-orientated’to‘multi-cooperative’;second,policy construction change from‘simple-loosing’to‘systematic-tightening’;third,policy processes and decision focus point transfer to‘later-deciding’stages.Finally,this paper refers to policy development should pay attention to institutional supply,establishing policy assessing indicator system and performance evaluating system,constructing choosing and using pattern of marine environmental policy tools,and promoting policy tools’innovation.