基于灰色预测GM(1,1)模型的体育彩票销量预测

Prediction of Sports Lottery Sales Volume Based on Grey Prediction GM(1,1) Model

体育彩票销量的预测对彩票业和体育产业的发展具有重要的意义。选取2006-2017年我国体育彩票销量作为原始数据,把MATLAB程序用于灰色预测GM(1,1)模型对我国体育彩票销量进行模拟和预测。结果表明,我国体育彩票销量的实际值与预测值的平均相对误差较小,后验差比值、小误差概率均为一级,说明预测精度比较可靠,拟合度高。通过该模型预测出2018-2020年我国体育彩票的销量呈逐年稳固上升趋势,该模型对体育彩票销量的预测具有重要的导向作用。

It is of great significance to predict the sports lottery volume for the development of the lottery industry and the sports industry.The thesis mainly adopts the sports lottery sales volume of China from 2006 to 2017 as the initial data,and applies MATLAB to the Grey Prediction(1,1)Model to simulate and predict the sales volume of China's sports lotteries.It turns out that the average relative error of the actual value and the predictive value is small,and both the posterior error ratio and the small error probability reach the first class,which suggests a reliable prediction accuracy and high fitting rate.Based on this model,it is predicted that the sales volume of the sports lotteries from 2018 to 2020 will increase year by year and the model plays an important guiding role in predicting the sales volume of sports lotteries.