摘要
"21世纪海上丝绸之路"建设中,沿线地区的生态风险不仅是该地区的现实威胁,而且会对中国的海外利益构成广泛威胁,需要予以重点关注。通过梳理生态风险的理论体系,从资源限制、人为活动、自然灾害三个层面对海上丝绸之路沿线的东南亚、南亚、中东三个地区的生态风险进行评估,给出了各类风险等级指数,并重点研究了中国对外投资存量较大的9个沿线战略支点国家。研究发现,东南亚地区的人为活动风险、自然灾害风险处于高等级;南亚地区的资源限制风险、自然灾害风险处于高等级;中东地区的资源限制风险、人为活动风险处于高等级。为保障战略的顺利实施,建议中国从跨界水公共产品供给与国际农业合作、绿色投资降低人为活动风险、搭建沿线国家减灾合作平台、优先培育和发展环境类国际非政府组织四个方面,结合各个地区的实际,制定灵活的应对之策。
In promoting the strategy of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road,ecological risks of countries along the Silk Road make not only realistic threats to the region,but also a great threat to China s overseas interests,to which considerable attention should be paid.Analyzing the theoretical system of ecological risk,the paper evaluates the ecological risk in three aspects of resource restriction,human activity and natural disasters,and works out the risk rating index.Nine countries,deemed as strategic pivots of China s foreign investment,are particularly selected in the research.Major findings are that human activity and natural disasters risks are high in Southeast Asia;resource restriction and natural disasters risks are high in South Asia;and resource restriction and human activity risks are high in the Middle East.It is suggested that China should make flexible strategies in four aspects:the supply of cross-border aquatic public goods and international agricultural cooperation;reducing human activity risk by green development;building national cooperation platforms for disaster reduction;and establishing international non-governmental organizations concerning environmental protection.
作者
辛方坤
XIN Fangkun(Shanghai University of Political Science and Law,Shanghai 201701,China)
出处
《太平洋学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第7期59-70,共12页
Pacific Journal
基金
教育部人文社科基金项目"环境敏感期邻避冲突的预警机制研究"(13YJC630190)
上海市晨光计划"邻避冲突治理中的公民参与"(14CG60)的阶段性成果