基于CRITIC赋权法的我国金融稳定测度体系

China's Financial Stability Measurement System Based on CRITIC Empowerment Method

金融自由化和全球化的深入使我国金融稳定受到诸多因素的影响,为了更好地维持和加强我国金融稳定,提高抵御不稳定因素的能力,文中从宏观经济环境、银行业、证券业和保险业4个层面选取13个基础指标,运用同时兼顾指标变异性和冲突性的CRITIC赋权法构建金融稳定的测度体系,并利用2010—2017年的季度数据对其进行量化分析。研究结果表明:(1)在所选取的样本期间内,我国金融系统的稳定从2010年第四季度到2017年第二季度整体上可以分为2个阶段:2010年第四季度到2015年第二季度的波动阶段和2015年第三季度到2017年第二季度的稳定阶段。利用文中构建的测度体系得到2个阶段的稳定形态与我国金融的实际发展状况相吻合,说明此体系具有实际应用价值。(2)金融稳定不仅与自身的分支行业有关,同时也与宏观经济环境密切相关。宏观经济环境和金融领域各分支行业发生变动都会对我国金融稳定产生不同程度的影响。因此,需要从多层次、多角度考虑,使宏观经济政策和金融各行业相互协调和配合,共同维护金融稳定,使其达到一种动态的稳定。

The financial liberalization and the globalization affected China’s financial stability in many ways.In order to maintain and strengthen China’s financial stability,improve the ability to resist the unstable factors,this paper,from the four aspects of the macroeconomic environment,banking,securities and insurance industries,selected 13 basic indicators,constructed a Measurement System for Financial Stability by using CRITIC empowerment method that considers index variability and conflict simultaneously,and used quarterly data of 2010-2017 years for quantitative analysis.The results show that:①during the sample period,the stability of our financial system from the fourth quarter of 2010 to the second quarter of 2017 as a whole can be divided into two stages:stable phase of the fourth quarter of 2010 to the second quarter of 2015 and the third quarter of 2015 to the phase fluctuation in the second quarter of 2017.By using the measurement system constructed in this paper,the stable form of the two stages is consistent with the actual development of China’s finance,indicating that the system has practical application value.②Financial stability is not only related to its own branch industry,but also closely related to the macro-economic environment.The changes in the macro-economic environment and the various branches of the financial sector will affect the financial stability of our country in varying degrees.It is of great need to from a multi-level and multi angle perspective to make macro-economic policies and financial sectors coordinate and cooperate with each other so as to jointly maintain financial stability and achieve a dynamic stability.