农业转移劳动力粮食消费及其影响分析

Grain Consumption and Its Influence of Agricultural Transfer Labors in China: An Investigation on Migrant Workers

我国现有统计制度中没有农业劳动力转移后对粮食消费情况进行相应的统计监测。文中利用农民工粮食消费课题组对农民工的专项调查数据,考察农民工粮食消费数量和结构,采用"幂指数+指数"混合型生长模型,结合最小一乘估计法对中国农民工数量进行模拟预测。在此基础上,量化分析农业劳动力转移在粮食消费方面的影响——对我国粮食消费的拉动和对农民工粮食消费数量的低估,并提出我国粮食安全战略:保证口粮安全;稳定口粮生产,扩大饲料粮生产;引导粮食消费;加强农民工粮食消费监测等政策建议。

There is no statistical monitoring on the grain consumption of agricultural labors9transference in China's statistical system.Using data of migrant workers'grain consumption survey of China,this paper identifies the grain demand and its structure of migrant workers.Moreover,this paper employs a hybrid growth model of“power exponent+exponent”,combining with Least Absolute Deviation,to estimate the number of migrant workers in China.And to quantify the impacts on grain consumption of agricultural labors‘transference:the climbing grain demand from the perspectives of the pull effect caused by rapid increase of rural migrants and the possible underestimated grain consumption by them.This paper aims to provide comprehensive policy implications of rural-urban migration on grain consumption in China,firstly to ensure gain safety,secondly to stabilize rations product and expand the feed,then to guide gain consumption,and to strengthen monitoring of their gain consumption.