生猪养殖规模化程度的影响因素及其空间效应——基于13个生猪养殖优势省份的研究

The Determinants of Hog Scale Production and Its Spatial Correlation: An Analysis Based on Data from 13 Main Provinces of Hog Production in China

基于2007～2015年的相关统计数据,本文首先利用生猪规模养殖指数分析了13个生猪养殖优势省份的生猪规模养殖发展状况及其省际差异,然后通过建立空间杜宾模型分析了生猪养殖规模化程度的影响因素及其空间效应。研究结果表明:第一,生猪规模养殖整体上呈现向华北地区和东北地区富集的基本趋势,但目前生猪养殖规模化程度仍较低;第二,农民文化程度越高,城镇化水平越低,工资性收入比例越高,猪肉消费能力越大,猪肉价格指数越低,交通通达性越好,生猪出栏能力越大,环境规制强度越大,省域的生猪养殖规模化程度会越高;第三,由于土地承载力、城镇化水平、工资性收入比例、消费市场潜力、猪肉消费能力、交通通达性、农民固定资产投资能力、环境规制强度这8个影响因素产生了外溢效应,生猪养殖规模化程度的提升存在空间依赖性。因此,发展生猪规模养殖需充分考虑空间相关性和外溢性,既要提高工资性收入比例、消费市场潜力和猪肉消费能力,改善交通通达性,增强农民固定资产投资能力,提高环境规制强度,同时也要考虑土地承载力和城镇化水平的抑制作用。

Based on relevant statistics from 2007 to 2015,this article describes the development course and the scale production characteristics of hog production using the scale index of 13 provinces.Afterwards,it establishes a spatial model to analyze the determinants of hog scale production and its spatial correlation.The main conclusions are as follows.Firstly,the hog scale production in China tends to concentrate in north China and northeast China,and hog production scale is generally low.Secondly,there are several factors influencing hog scale production,including farmers’education level,urbanization level,non-agricultural employment wage rate,pork consumption capacity,pork price index,traffic accessibility,output of hog production and environmental regulation intensity.Thirdly,hog scale production has a spatial dependence on the determinants such as land carrying capacity,urbanization level,non-agricultural employment wage rate,potential consumer market,pork consumption capacity,traffic accessibility,farmers’ability to invest in fixed assets and environmental regulation intensity.Therefore,in the process of promoting hog scale production,the government should fully consider the spatial correlation and spillover effects.On one hand,we should expand the potential consumer market,improve pork consumption capacity and transportation accessibility,enhance farmers’ability to invest in fixed assets,and strengthen environmental regulation.On the other hand,we should also consider the inhibiting effect of the urbanization level,change in non-agricultural employment wage rate and land carrying capacity.