基于动态Copula的风光联合出力建模及动态相关性分析

Modeling and dynamic correlation analysis of wind/solar power joint output based on dynamic Copula

准确描述风力发电和光伏发电的动态相关性及联合出力的波动性,对风光互补系统的出力预测和经济调度具有重要意义。针对现行静态相关系数无法准确描述风光出力相依关系的问题,研究了风光出力的动态相关性,提出了基于动态Copula函数的风光联合出力模型构建方法。结合实测数据建立了8组动态与静态的风光联合出力Copula模型,用动态相关系数描述风光出力的相关性。运用拟合优度检验方法验证了动态Copula模型对比其静态模型的优越性,选出最优模型。最后将该模型应用在数据驱动的风光联合系统中,验证了其合理性与正确性。

Describing the dynamic correlation of wind/solar power output and the fluctuation of joint output accurately are of great significance to the output forecasting and economic dispatch of the wind solar hybrid system.According to the problem that the existing static correlation coefficient cannot accurately describe the relationship between the wind power and PV output,this paper studies dynamic correlation of wind/solar power output and proposes a wind/solar power joint output model construction method by using dynamic Copula function.Combining with the measured data,it establishes 8 groups of wind/solar power joint output model,applies dynamic correlation coefficient to describe dynamic correlation of wind/solar power output and uses goodness of fit method to prove the superiority of the dynamic Copula model comparing to the static model to select the optimal model.Finally,the model is applied to the data driven wind/solar joint system,and the rationality and correctness of the model are verified.